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During the giddy days immediately after the fall of the Berlin Wall, I remember having one of those freewheeling, caffeine-fuelled late-night conversation sprees with a couple of friends, jacked on too many cigarettes and the sheer thrill of conversational calisthenics.
A topic that emerged, was batted around like a helium balloon, then rudely punctured, was the notion that Mikhail Gorbachev was a U.S. intelligence asset, a sleeper inserted like a virus into the heart of the Soviet system in order to destroy it from within.
Of course, we ultimately rejected the idea, even as an premise for rhetorical thrust-and-parry. After all, the Soviet system was visibly rotted from within and had been for years. Only the Pentagon super-hawks, stridently pushing for their pet weapons systems -- "the only thing that will allow us to maintain parity" -- could actually point to the Russian bear as a viable threat with anything like a straight face once the long retreat from Afghanistan began. In fact, there were those that made a convincing argument that the high point of the Soviet menace was the Cuban Missile Crisis, and that for the Sov military and apparatchiks it was all downhill from there (although all through the 1970s, it was a great rear-guard action...)
Maybe, though, it's time to resurrect this mildly paranoid notion, but this time on the other side of the Cold War polarity. As Jimmy Carter recently
pointed out when he called George W. Bush's administration the 'worst in history' where international relations are concerned, the President's two disastrous terms could hardly have damaged the United States worse if he were programmed to do so by a Chinese "Manchurian Candidate" brainwashing lab.
Before examining the specifics of this hypothesis, let's first acknowledge and then dispense with the observation that Carter criticizing Bush or anyone else on foreign policy is very much a case of a well-used porridge receptacle referring to a bodum as being darkened. Despite having the sage counsel of foreign policy (and Council on Foreign Relations and Trilateral Commission) heavyweights like Zbigniew Brzezinksi, Carter's Iran hostage crisis blunders were a nadir in American prestige almost deeper than that caused by the entire Vietnam War. They also laid the seeds of the current polarization in the U.S. political climate and set the stage for the Right Wing Triumphalism (with all of the "ends justify the means" international sleaze and covert backdoor-dealing that entailed) which culminated in the NeoCon renaissance of the first G.W. Bush term.
But still, the two-term administration of the "Catastrophe from Crawford" has arguably caused more (possibly fatal) damage than the U.S. has ever suffered: to its military; to its international relationships; to its ability to serve as a global leader; and to its economy.
The Military: Mortgaging the Future
The ongoing pressures of funding the operational costs of the war, including expensive line items such as the costly ($25 billion)
Mine Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicle program slated to replace all humvees in the field in Iraq and Afghanistan is taking a continuing toll on the military's biggest-budget transformation programs. These are the systems designed to give the American military such a vast technology overmatch that even militaries the size of China -- regardless of their own rush to modernization -- cannot possibly compete in a conventional warfare scenario.
These programs -- notably the high-priced
Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and the ambitious Future Combat System (FCS) -- are beginning to suffer the death of a thousand cuts as defense procurements feel the twin sting of increasing national debt load coupled with the cost of maintaining an increasingly
creaky and war-weary military machine.
Other programs less high-profile and 'transformative' than the JSF and FCS, but equally at risk include the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV),
Osprey Tilt-Rotor, and the Joint Light Tactical Vehicle (the hybrid-electric, post-MRAP, future-humvee replacement).
The endangered status of these programs raises the spectre of a U.S. Army in 2020 facing off against a distant foe (one against whom it is thus difficult to project expeditionary forces) with 40-year-old tanks, and with its most high-tech equipment being late 1980s technology on platforms such as armoured personnel carriers and the F-22 Raptor. At the same time, potential combatants will have dramatically increased arms spending and development. The most notable example of this trend is, once again, China, whose defence expenditure analysts suggest may be three times its public figure.
International Relations: A Case Study in the Squandering of Goodwill
Immediately following the events of 9/11, the United States had the goodwill -- even the probable cooperation -- of the entire planet with the exception of a few countries whose leaders were clearly insane. Even Moammar Khaddafy felt the love, volunteering to lay down his AK-47 and behave himself. The artistry, economy, restraint and sheer prowess displayed during the destruction of the Taliban in Afghanistan subsequently did nothing to harm this planet-wide sense of goodwill.
Then came Iraq.
Even the run-up to the invasion was marred by feelings of unease. Jeremiah figures like Scott Ritter said what many were thinking but too timid to say. Staunch allies like Canada opted out, and publicly voiced skepticism by NATO allies like Germany and France about the administration's WMD claims led to Rumsfeldian pronouncements about 'old Europe'.
And while the actual invasion went swimmingly, as was expected by most in the Pentagon establishment (note: for an interesting description of the degree to which the reality clashed with the expectations and the media version, David Zucchino's Thunder Run is particularly instructive), within weeks the cracks began to show as looters helped themselves to the country's treasure and heritage while undermanned U.S. forces could only look on. Throw in some manufactured heroics a la Jessica Lynch, a dash of Abu Ghraib and some mercenary hijinks, and voila! Soon the entire world was palpably anti-American. So much so, in fact, that even those with the most to lose in the case of a U.S. withdrawal -- the Maliki government -- are now saying that they would prefer to see
the gringos go home.
In the early days of the 'Bush Doctrine' there was much bombast from administration spokesmen, think-tank talking heads and media pundits about how the U.S. could 'go it alone', if it had to. Now, thanks to the careless squandering of a vast font of goodwill, it appears that this hypothesis is going to be tested.
Global Leadership: A Beacon of Hope No More
Despite the tainted motives for the invasion, there was a brief shining moment when it appeared that the publicly-traded Neocon argument for invasion was going to bear fruit. There was a week or two after the Saddam statues came down when it appeared there might have been a chance for a democratic Iraq, able to serve as a shining beacon in a troubled region. Such a model's purpose would have been doubly salutory; firstly, to demonstrate that democracy and Islam could indeed co-exist peacefully, and secondly, to show the doubters, once and for all, that U.S. intentions are honourable. That despite decades of realpolitick, U.S. values of freedom and democracy are meant for everyone, and not just fat-cat U.S. citizens. That murder, torture, imprisonment without process were antithetical to the American Dream.
Sadly, the chance came and went, squandered by a borderline megalomaniacal defense secretary and a desert-boots-and-Brooks-Brothers U.S. proconsul, and aided by the oddly flip-flopping Commander-in-Chief, profoundly authoritative one moment, overly obsequious to elders like Cheney the next..
Today, tragically, very few would point to the U.S. as any kind of exemplar of freedom. Certainly not Omar Khadr, imprisoned in Guantanamo at the age of 15 and still behind bars at 20, even after all charges against him were dropped by a military tribunal last week. Certainly not Maher Arar, a Canadian man deported from the U.S. to Syria after arriving in New York for a connecting flight and subsequently imprisoned and tortured for over a year. Earlier this year, an inquiry in Canada found him innocent of all wrongdoing.
Most worrisome, these are just the high-profile cases. There are many more cases, just as disturbing, that get little or not coverage. And most recently -- today, in fact -- comes news that as many as 39 individuals may have simply disappeared while in U.S. custody.
This development may be most critical in the easterly precints of Asia, where emerging countries and those trying to shrug off dictatorship are most in need of a champion. At this point, they can perhaps be forgiven from speculating that the Chinese may be a better bet to serve in that role.
The Economy: What's a Few Trillion Between Friends?"
For a conservative, and the chief representative of a party long billing itself as fiscally responsible, George W. Bush's two terms in office have been financially disastrous for the American economy, the currency of which is now in danger of being eclipsed by a dollar known popularly by its northern neighbour as the "Loony". On June 7, Reuters reported what many already knew, that "foreign central banks, particularly those of Asia, were net sellers of U.S. Treasuries" according to federal reserve data, and that they held over one-quarter of that debt. This reality puts the U.S. at some risk of suffering economically should holders of this debt -- particularly China -- decide to exercise the leverage it gives them. A peek into the consequences of such an act was
unveiled in late February of this year, when a sell-off in the Shanghai market sent the Dow plummeting more than 400 points and awakening fears of global recession.
So on many fronts, American authority, moral and otherwise, has been watered down, weakened and put at risk. It's a measure of that authority that taken individually, none of these fronts would even be cause for concern. For example, despite increased Chinese military spending, U.S. defense outlay is still more than that of China and the rest of the world's combined. But, with all these factors building up in a synergistic and logarithmic manner, perhaps it's time to be concerned that U.S. ascendancy could be checked by Chinese long-range plans for global power. Perhaps it's time to openly wonder if George W. Bush is a Chinese communist sleeper?
(Probably not. But it's hard to imagine how he could benefit them more if he were.)
